Lawrenceburg, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS63 KLMK 180138
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Breezy with unseasonably warm temperatures beginning Friday.

*  Shower and thunderstorm chances over weekend. A few stronger
   storms are possible in southern Indiana Saturday afternoon and
   evening. Stronger storms may again be possible very late Sunday
   night into Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

WAA regime will remain in place overnight, thanks to the combination
of warm return flow from a sfc high just off the Atlantic Coast, as
a strengthening southwesterly LLJ moving in ahead of a sfc low
pressure system over the High Plains. A mild night is in store, with
temps currently ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Portions of
western Kentucky are still around 70 at this hour. Lows tonight will
remain in the 50s, which will end up being around 10 degrees warmer
than normal. Mostly to partly clear skycover is forecast tonight,
with a scattering of high clouds possible.

Overall forecast is in good shape for tonight. Warm and breezy
conditions still expected for tomorrow, with winds picking up in the
morning. Highs for tomorrow are forecast to hit the low 80s, with
cloudier skycover west of I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Tonight, the axis of upper ridge with a slight positive tilt will
slowly ease over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. At the
surface, a tight pressure gradient running north-northeast to south-
southwest sits over the CWA between a low cutting northeast through
the Midwest and a high just off the Atlantic Coast.  This will keep
skies mostly clear as 10-15 mph winds veer from the southeast to
south. Gusts could reach to 25 mph into Friday morning. WAA will
limit lows to the 50s with a few areas along the western edge of the
CWA remaining in the low 60s.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge continues off to the east as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This will allow the surface pressure
gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley to shift more to the northeast
to southwest. Southern winds around 15-20 mph and gusting to 30-35
mph will usher in warmer temperatures, climbing into the upper 70s
to low 80s. Skies will remain mostly sunny with some added cloud
cover over the western side of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Friday Night - Monday...

Looking for a fairly active weekend as we sit in the SW flow between
SE CONUS ridging and central Plains positively tilted trough. A
surface low over eastern Canada will drag a cold front toward our
region on Friday night, and then stall as the boundary becomes
nearly parallel to the upper flow. Could see some showers and storms
sneak into our N/NW CWA by late Friday night, and again through
Saturday. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for those time periods
across our N CWA, but uncertainty in placement, instability, and the
lower level speed shear profiles makes strong to severe storms
pretty low confidence at this point.

By late weekend, the stalled frontal boundary will lift back north
as a warm front as a potent southern Plains disturbance ejects out
into the mid Mississippi River Valley. This should bring one final
round of storms later Sunday night into the first part of Monday
ahead of the front. Since this last system looks to occur mainly
during the diurnal minimum, instability looks to be in question.
That being said, plenty of shear for this setup, so if some
instability is realized then some strong storms would be on the
table. Could see our area ending up being outlooked for the late
Sunday/early Monday time frame.

Overall QPF for the weekend into Monday looks to range between .5"
and 1.25" across southern IN. Meanwhile, KY should see a half an
inch or less through this stretch. NW has been the overall trend
with this setup, so wouldn`t be surprised if parts of KY end up even
drier. Look for mild days through the weekend with 70s north, to low
80s south. Monday is cooler behind the cold front with highs back in
the upper 60s and low 70s for most.

Monday Night - Tuesday Night...

Cold front slides through by later Monday and hangs up to our south.
We`ll stay under drier zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the
surface through Tuesday night. This will keep us dry and cooler.
Highs recover back into the low and mid 70s by Tuesday, with lows
each night in the upper 40s to around 50.

Wednesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence by this time period, but chances for showers and
storms will likely increase again as another disturbance lifts out
of the southern Plains, and helps to drag that stalled frontal
boundary to our south back over our area. This will set the stage
for more rounds of showers and storms by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Mid-level clouds will continue to clear to the east this evening,
with VFR conditions expected for the entire period. Main impact with
this TAF update will be the winds and LLWS at all terminals. A 40kt
LLJ will move into the region later tonight, which will result in
wind shear concerns for the overnight, especially between 04-14z.
Some of these higher winds could mix down to the sfc, but confidence
remains limited on this overnight. However for tomorrow, gusty
southerly winds are to be expected, though VFR cigs/vis will be
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP